USD rises as Senate takes first step on taxes

Finally, the unified Republican government is beginning to get something done. Taxes are easier to tackle than health care, which is clearly complicated. The Senate passed a budget blueprint for 2018. This prevents a filibuster by the Democrats and allows an easier passage of any tax reforms. Yet as with healthcare, the devil may be [...]

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EUR/USD: There Is A Pattern In Ongoing Resilience To The Spanish Woes – ING

Things are getting worse in Spain. The Catalan government made its own threats and the Spanish government is set to suspend the autonomy. Nevertheless, after the small drop, EUR/USD is marching higher once again. What’s going on? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: ING FX Strategy Research notes there is a pattern in the ongoing [...]

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UK retail sales badly disappoint, falling 0.8% – GBP falls

Retail sales dropped by 0.8% m/m in the UK, much worse than -0.1% expected and with a downward revision. Year over year, sales are up only 1.2$ against 2.1% expected. Excluding fuel, sales are down 0.7% instead of +0and up only 1.6% y/y instead of 2.4% predicted. Downward revisions accompany all the numbers. GBP/USD is down [...]

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Spain will begin suspending Catalan autonomy on Saturday – EUR/USD falls

The Spanish government will convene on Saturday to begin suspending the Catalan autonomy and Spain will enter unchartered territories. The move by Puigdemont did not move the euro too much, but the quick response from Spain already sends EUR/USD some 40 pips to the downside. Spain is the fourth-largest economy in the euro-zone and led [...]

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Catalan crisis: Puigdemont officially threatens imminent independence if Spain suspends the autonomy

The Catalan crisis is getting deeper. Catalonia’s President Puigdemont responds to the ultimatum by Spain with a threat of his own: declaring outright independence if the autonomy is suspended. This was implied already yesterday, and now becomes formal in a letter to Spanish PM Rajoy, minutes before the ultimatum expires This could add onto the [...]

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AUD/USD hardly rises despite robust jobs report, Chinese GDP

The Australian dollar should be on a roll after data from both Australia and its No. 1 trading partner China point upwards. AUD/USD is trading around 0.7870, up from the lows of 0.7840. This is a relatively limited move. Is the Aussie showing us its weakness? Australia received a better-than-expected jobs report. The country gained 19.8K [...]

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Jacinda Ardern will become New Zealand PM – NZD/USD crashes

Winston Peters, which held the balance of power for around three long weeks, decided to go for Labour leaders Jacinda Ardern. His NZ First Party will join the Greens in a coalition under Ardern. Markets preferred the incumbent Bill English of the more market-friendly National which held power for around a decade. Peters kept everybody waiting [...]

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Appointing Taylor to Fed Chair could boost the USD by 3-5%

Speculation is mounting about the next person to lead the Fed. Will Yellen continue? Will it be someone else? One of the options is John Taylor, best known for the Taylor Rule. How will the US dollar react? Here is the view from BTMU: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: BTMU FX Strategy Research [...]

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USD/CAD: Towards 1.25 Or 1.30 By Year-End?; NAFTA Negotiations Key – BTMU

Dollar/CAD is looking for a new direction after consolidating earlier. What’s next? Here is the view from BTMU: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: BTMU FX Strategy Research notes that CAD has been undermined in the near-term by renewed concerns over the ongoing NAFTA negotiations. “In the latest round of talks, the US has put [...]

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UK wages rise to 2.2% – GBP/USD follows

Wages are up 2.2% y/y in the UK in August, better than expected and with an upwards revision for July which is now 2.2% instead of 2.1%. Excluding bonuses, wages are up 2.1%, also above 2% predicted. The unemployment rate remains at 4.3% as expected. A small disappointment comes from the Claimant Count Change for [...]

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